Yesterday’s analysis focused on two major developments in the 5-stage linear war trajectory that intensified significantly beginning early last week. The first development was the forthcoming “emergency talks” between NATO and Ukraine scheduled for today. The second development was the overnight ATACMS attack launched by Ukraine on 24 Nov 24 and reported the following day. Yesterday’s analysis can be read here for contextual backdrop: REPORT: Ukraine Carried-Out Overnight Strikes with US ATACMS Long-Range Missile Deep Inside Russia.
This is the 230th article in the series War, Famine & Disease.
CONTEXTUAL BACKDROP
Chronology
The war escalation chronology that began in late December 2020 [From 2020 Foreign Policy Shift to WWIII in 2024 Biden Marches Us to War] intensified beginning 17 Nov 24 and it entails:
- 17 Nov 24: Joe Biden’s Sunday authorization for long-range missiles against Russia: Trump Details Plan to “Dismantle the Deep State,” Deep State Counters by Crossing Putin’s Line on Long Range Missiles.
- 19 Nov 24: Ukraine’s Tuesday leveraging of Biden’s authorization to strike Russia with US long-range missiles: US Long-range Missiles Strike Inside Russia: US Proxy Zelensky Uses Biden’s Authorization to Follow-through on Threat.
- 20 Nov 24: Ukraine’s Wednesday firing of 12 UK [NATO] Storm Shadow missiles at Russia targeting the Kursk region in Southern Russia: 12 UK Storm Shadow Missiles Were Fired Into Russia, Local Sources Say.
- 21 Nov 24: Russia’s retaliatory ICBM strike against Ukrainian [NATO?] military targets: Russia Fires ICBM Into Ukraine For First Time, Kiev Claims.
- 21 Nov 24: Russia’s Thursday attack on Ukraine using hypersonic missiles with MIRV technology: REPORT ACCELERATES ALREADY EXPEDITED WWIII TRAJECTORY: NATO and Ukraine to Hold Emergency Talks After Russian Hypersonic Missile Attack.
- 21 Nov 24: Russia’s Thursday advisement that a US/NATO missile base in Poland [NATO ally] that became operational this month [reported last Saturday] has been classified as a potential priority strike target: Putin Validates War Analysis: The world stands on the transition line between full scale regional war and full scale global war.
- 22 Nov 24: Ukraine’s Friday cancellation of regular parliament session to set emergency talks with NATO [from Breitbart]: NATO and Ukraine to Hold Emergency Talks After Russian Hypersonic Missile Attack.
- 24 Nov 24: Ukraine’s overnight Sunday strikes deep inside of Russia with ATACMS long-range missile systems provided by the United States: REPORT: Ukraine Carried-Out Overnight Strikes with US ATACMS Long-Range Missile Deep Inside Russia.
- 26 Nov 24: Ukraine and NATO hold emergency talks; outcome TBD.
Established Cycle
As indicated in the analysis and with war reciprocity bearing down, the established cycle is roughly 24 hours.
With a 24-hour turnover in the cycle and during this period of marked intensification, the analysis here is being published daily in the late morning or after.
Analysis
Here is the analysis for the 2-week escalation period:
- Trump Details Plan to “Dismantle the Deep State,” Deep State Counters by Crossing Putin’s Line on Long Range Missiles
- US Long-range Missiles Strike Inside Russia: US Proxy Zelensky Uses Biden’s Authorization to Follow-through on Threat
- More Asymmetrical, Irregular and Undeclared Warfare from China: Chinese Ship Sabotages Baltic Sea Cables
- Manufactured Insanity of World War III Escalates, ICBMs for 1st Time Ever, Where Does This End?
- Putin Validates War Analysis: The world stands on the transition line between full scale regional war and full scale global war
- REPORT ACCELERATES ALREADY EXPEDITED WWIII TRAJECTORY: NATO and Ukraine to Hold Emergency Talks After Russian Hypersonic Missile Attack
- WORLD WAR III: US Officials Discuss Nuclear Armament for Ukraine as Russian Deterrence Strategy
- REPORT: Ukraine Carried-Out Overnight Strikes with US ATACMS Long-Range Missile Deep Inside Russia
To view the aggregate analysis chronologically, see the War, Famine & Disease series.
5-Stage Linear War Trajectory
The analysis laid-out 5 plausible outcomes and where time is taken time to identify ones already eclipsed: 1-threat of war, 2-limited scale regional war, 3-full scale regional war, 4-limited scale global war and 5-full scale global war.
The outcomes posed represent a LINEAR TRAJECTORY from the THREAT OF WAR to FULL SCALE GLOBAL WAR.
The analysis indicates our current placement on the linear trajectory of 5 outcomes: CURRENT LOCATION: Resting on the transition line between a full scale regional war and a limited or full scale global war.
IMPACT ON THE LINEAR WAR TRAJECTORY: The outcome of the NATO/Ukraine emergency talks set for today will immediately impact the trajectory to project forward.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
As we await the outcome of the NATO/Ukraine emergency talks for later today, the following impact the positions laid-out in the analysis:
1 – Proposal to give Kiev nuclear arms highly extremist — Kremlin [TASS]:
MOSCOW, November 26. /TASS/. The idea to provide the Kiev regime with nuclear weapons is highly extremist, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a news briefing.
“Even the most provocative policies aimed at escalating tensions have a highly extremist aspect. So, probably, this viewpoint belongs to this ultra-extremist flank,” the Kremlin official said.
He noted that this is an absolutely irresponsible line of reasoning from those with a poor grasp of reality. Peskov also pointed out that such suggestions are being voiced anonymously.
On November 21, the New York Times reported that some officials in the US and Europe proposed returning nuclear arms to Kiev, which Ukraine gave up after the fall of the Soviet Union. However, the newspaper noted that this is difficult to carry out and fraught with grave consequences.
2 – Top NATO official calls on business leaders to prepare for ‘wartime scenario’ [Reuters]:
BRUSSELS, Nov 25 (Reuters) – A top NATO military official on Monday urged businesses to be prepared for a wartime scenario and adjust their production and distribution lines accordingly, in order to be less vulnerable to blackmail from countries such as Russia and China.
“If we can make sure that all crucial services and goods can be delivered no matter what, then that is a key part of our deterrence,” the chair of NATO’s military committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, said in Brussels.
3 – Moscow preparing response to Kiev’s ATACMS attacks – MOD [RT]:
Russia is preparing a response to Ukraine’s ATACMS attacks on Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday. Last week, US President Joe Biden authorized Kiev to use US-supplied long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia’s internationally recognized borders.
In an official statement on Telegram, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that over the past three days, Ukraine’s forces had conducted two long-range strikes on Kursk Region using Western weaponry.
ANALYSIS
After an arduous 4-year march to Armageddon, we steadfastly remain straddling the transition line between full scale regional war and global war.
Today’s NATO/Ukraine emergency talks will set the course to move forward and as we await that meeting and its outcomes, war reciprocity applies as Russia prepares another counterstrike in retaliation to NATO’s recent ATACMS strike.
Stay-tuned for further analysis including a follow-up item covering the NATO/Ukraine emergency talks outcome.
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